E-commerce sales seen at $200bn in a decade
E-commerce sales seen at $200bn in a decade
This could be music to the ears of Flipkart, Amazon and others operating in the e-commerce space. Thanks to the rise in digital transactions in India, e-commerce sales in the country could jump to $200 billion by 2026-27 from $15 billion in 2017, a report forecast on Thursday.
According to Morgan Stanley, while the number of Internet users in India stood at around 43.2 crore in 2016-17, this could rise to at least 91.5 crore by the end of calendar year 2026.
It forecast that during this period, the number of online laptop dropshippers could rise to to 47.5 crore (base case) from 6 crore which means that the percentage of online shoppers to the total Internet users would increase to 52 per cent from 14 per cent. It expects the total online retail markets to hit $200 billion by the end of 2026.
The investment banking giant made this forecast in its research report on “INSIGHT: India Equity Strategy: India’s Disruption Decade: 10 for the Next 10 Years”.
According to the report, while India’s e-commerce market remains in a nascent stage and further growth in the next few years will be driven largely by the addition of new online shoppers even as existing shoppers would shop more on various platforms.
It, however, cautioned that this will be a function of the overall funding environment. It may be recalled that a slowdown in funding in 2016 had led to a slowdown in growth rates.
“In the absence of new funding rounds, on-boarding new users to the platforms could slow down, which could impede growth in the e-commerce market in the next few years,” it said.
Morgan Stanley has also projected a “bear case” which says that that if online shopper penetration improves slowly,
the overall e-commerce market could reach a total size of $105 billion by 2026-27 against the base-case expectations of $200 billion.
This forecast comes at a time both Flipkart and Amazon India have claimed huge response to their Great Indian Festival Sale and Big Billion Days sale, respectively.
Also See: how to start dropshipping
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